Following this thread

Hey,

I totally get planning around Cyber Monday – I’ve built or upgraded a system basically every holiday season since the R9 290 days, and I’ve made the “panic buy too early” mistake more than once!

Let me break this down as **Option A vs B vs C** based on what I’ve seen with RX 6800/6900 -> 7900 XT/XTX over the last few years.

**Option A: Buy close to launch (no waiting)**
**Pros:**
- You get guaranteed access to the exact model you want (Sapphire Nitro+, PowerColor Red Devil, etc.).
- No stock lottery, no weird pricing spikes.
- Good if you *need* the card for work ASAP.

**Cons:**
- You’re absolutely paying early-adopter tax. Historically, AMD high-end cards drop $50–$150 within ~2–3 months.
- Bundles are usually weaker at launch.

**Option B: Wait for Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2025**
This is what you’re asking about, and honestly, it’s usually the **sweet spot** for AMD.

From my logs/receipts:
- 6800 XT: saw $70–$120 off by first BF, plus game bundles.
- 7900 XT: Micro Center and Newegg had **meaningful** cuts, $100ish off select AIBs + game codes.

**Pros:**
- This is when AMD cards typically get aggressive: real discounts + better bundles.
- AIBs (Sapphire, PowerColor, XFX) are *way* more likely to be on sale than reference. I’ve seen Nitro+ and Red Devil variants discounted more than ref because retailers use them as “headline” deals.

**Cons:**
- You need to be flexible on brand/model/color and maybe size (3–3.5 slot monsters).
- Best models sometimes sell out fast when the discount hits.

**Retailer comparison (from my own experience):**
- **Micro Center** (if you’ve got one): consistently the best AMD deals. In-store only combos (GPU + CPU/mobo discounts) can be amazing.
- **Newegg**: great for AIB sales; promo codes and mail-in rebates on XFX/PowerColor are very common.
- **Amazon**: decent, but AMD deals are more hit-or-miss; good for quick price drops, less so for curated promos.
- **Best Buy**: usually better for NVIDIA; AMD deals exist but are typically mild.

**Option C: Wait *past* Cyber Monday into Q1 2026**
**Pros:**
- Historically, 2–4 months after launch + holidays is when actual price corrections happen. My 7900 XT dropped another $80 in Feb compared to BF.

**Cons:**
- You’re gaming on your old card for months for maybe an extra $50–$100 saved.

---

**So, what would I do in your shoes with a $700–$850 target?**

In my opinion:
- Assume 9070 XT MSRP will be at the *top* or slightly above that range at launch.
- Plan to **wait for Cyber Monday**, but:
- Watch prices starting **4–6 weeks before BF**. Sometimes the best deals appear as “early BF” promos.
- Focus on **Sapphire, PowerColor, XFX** AIB cards – they’re usually the ones with aggressive discounting.
- Check **Micro Center + Newegg first**, then Amazon as a backup.

Realistically, based on the last few AMD launches, I’d **absolutely expect** at least:
- $50–$100 off MSRP **or**
- Full MSRP but with a strong game bundle, sometimes plus a small gift card.

If you’re patient and flexible on brand, I think your $700–$850 goal on Cyber Monday 2025 is totally realistic for a 9070 XT–class card.

I’d personally *not* budget for full MSRP unless you need it on day one. AMD’s track record is clear: their high-end parts almost always see real cuts by the first holiday cycle.

Hope this helps! Feel free to ping back when we’re closer to launch and we can sanity-check actual pricing vs your budget.

Hey,

I totally get trying not to panic‑buy this time – I did that with a 6700 XT and then watched it drop like a rock 2–3 months later… was not fun 😅

Let me break it down a bit more like **Option A vs B vs C** based on how AMD high‑end cards usually behave.

---
### Option A – Buy near launch and hope for a small holiday promo
**Pros:**
- You get the card early, full performance now for 1440p and some 4K.
- At worst you might see things like game bundles or a small $20–$50 rebate.

**Cons:**
- Historically (6800/6900, 7900 XT/XTX), *real* price cuts didn’t land by the first Black Friday / Cyber Monday. You mostly got: free games, mail‑in rebates, or very minor cuts on less popular AIBs.
- You’re paying close to MSRP, which you said you want to avoid.

IMO this only makes sense if you absolutely need the GPU right away.

---
### Option B – Wait specifically for Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2025
**Pros:**
- For AMD, the **better deals usually show up on AIB models**, especially ones with big triple‑fan coolers that didn’t sell as fast. Think Sapphire Pulse/ Nitro, PowerColor Hellhound/Red Devil, XFX Merc. Those are the ones I’ve seen discounted more aggressively than reference.
- **Newegg** and **Micro Center** (if you’re in the US) tend to push the best AMD deals: combo discounts (GPU + PSU/CPU), instant codes, and sometimes stackable rebates. Amazon/Best Buy are more hit‑or‑miss but still worth watching.

**Cons:**
- Based on 7900 XT/XTX, I’d *not* expect massive % cuts that early. Something in the **5–12% off MSRP range** is more realistic on Cyber Monday for a fresh high‑end card, unless it’s underperforming vs Nvidia or reviews are lukewarm.
- If the 9070 XT launches strong and demand is high, you might only see $20–$40 off + a game.

In your $700–$850 window, I think Cyber Monday can get you *close* if AMD doesn’t overprice the card at launch. But it’s not guaranteed.

---
### Option C – Wait 3–6 months *after* launch (not just for Cyber Monday)
This is the less talked about option, but honestly it’s where I’ve been happiest.

**Pros:**
- Historically, **the real price movement for AMD high‑end shows up 3–6 months in**, once:
- Nvidia responds with a competing SKU
- AIB partners start undercutting each other
- Retailers clear early batches
- At that point you sometimes see **10–20% lower than launch** on specific AIB models or open‑box/refurb units.
- If you’re ok gaming at 1440p on your current card for a while, the value per dollar is usually much better.

**Cons:**
- You miss the initial hype and Black Friday buzz.
- No guarantee on exact timing – it depends on how strong Nvidia’s response is and how well the 9070 XT sells.

---
### How I’d time it in your shoes
- **Step 1:** Wait for reviews and real benchmarks (especially 4K and productivity – rendering/video editing). Make sure it actually is the sweet spot you think.
- **Step 2:** Set a *hard* target price (say $800 max) and track:
- Newegg shell shockers / promo codes
- Micro Center in‑store deals & open‑box
- Amazon Warehouse for returned AIB cards
- **Step 3:** If Cyber Monday hits your target (or close) on a good AIB model (decent cooler, good VRM, no tiny two‑fan design), then pull the trigger.
- **Step 4:** If Cyber Monday discounts are weak, I’d personally wait 2–4 more months and watch for price drops or AMD official cuts.

So in my opinion: **yes, it’s realistic to hope for *some* discount by Cyber Monday, but I’d plan your budget assuming close to MSRP**, and treat any sale as a bonus. The bigger win tends to come a bit later in the product cycle.

Hope this helps! If you share what card you’re on now, it might be easier to say whether waiting longer (Option C) is worth it for you.

Hey,

I’d actually flip your thinking a bit and treat Cyber Monday as **one possible window**, not *the* window.

From what I’ve seen over the last few gens (RTX 30/40, RX 6000/7000), the **best value** stuff often happens:
- 4–8 weeks *after* launch, when early adopters are done and retailers start doing quiet promos
- During random weekend sales / mail‑in rebates
…not just Black Friday/Cyber Monday.

For your $700–$850 target, I’d assume:
- Cyber Monday 2025 = maybe **$50–$100 off** MSRP, plus a game or two
- Bigger cuts (like $150+) usually show up once the next SKU steps on its toes or inventory piles up

Couple of cost‑saving tips:
- **Set a hard ceiling** (say $800) and use price trackers/alerts (PCPartPicker, Keepa, etc.) starting from launch.
- Don’t ignore **“boring” models** – base XFX/PowerColor cards often get discounted first vs. the flashy triple‑fan RGB monsters.
- Check **open‑box** at Micro Center / Best Buy around the holidays; that’s where I’ve found the steepest % drops.

If it were me, I’d:
1. Skip day‑one hype
2. Watch prices for 1–2 months
3. Be ready to pull the trigger **any time** a legit sub‑$800 deal appears, not just on Cyber Monday.

Hope this helps! Happy to sanity‑check a specific model/price later on.

Hey,

I’d look at this a bit more from the “market behavior by brand” angle than just “will it be cheaper by Cyber Monday.” Different brands play the pricing game very differently, and that can matter more than the global AMD discount trend.

Based on how 6800/6900 → 7800/7900 cycles went, here’s what I’d *expect* for a 9070 XT tier card by late 2025:

**1. Brand tiers & how they usually discount**
- **Sapphire / PowerColor** – These are usually the “enthusiast favorites.” Great coolers, often quiet, and they *do* hold value a bit longer. Cyber Monday deals here are typically smaller (like $30–$70 off or a rebate) but you sometimes get **game bundles** or extended warranties. Good if you want reliable thermals and don’t wanna gamble.
- **XFX** – Tends to undercut slightly on price and goes on sale more aggressively. I’ve been pretty happy with XFX overall (had a 6800 XT and a 7900 XT from them, both quiet, no coil whine issues), and they seem more willing to do $50–$100 cuts or decent combo deals.
- **ASUS / MSI / Gigabyte** – Often overpriced at launch, then you see **bigger percentage drops** around Black Friday/Cyber Monday to bring them back in line. If you see a chunky 20–25% discount, it’s often on these.
- **Reference cards** – Early on, they’re usually the “MSRP anchor.” Once AIB stock is healthy, reference sometimes gets small cuts or gets used as the “cheap” option in bundles. Not always the best cooling, though.

**2. Retailer patterns (market-style view)**
- **Micro Center** – Best *total system* value imo. They love doing **CPU + GPU + mobo** combos. If you’re building the whole rig in 2025, this is where I’d watch first. You might not see the 9070 XT at $700 flat, but you might effectively save $150–$250 across the bundle.
- **Newegg** – Good for **mail-in rebates and promo codes** on specific AIBs (XFX, PowerColor especially). However, double-check seller (stick to “sold by Newegg” or major partners) and watch return policies. Cautious hat on here.
- **Amazon** – Usually more conservative on straight discounts but safer on returns. You sometimes get lightning deals on less popular models (triple-slot monstrosities, oddball brands).
- **Best Buy** – Often does **gift card promos or open-box discounts** instead of huge MSRP chops. If you’re okay with open-box, you can score 10–15% off there.

**3. What I’d realistically expect for 9070 XT by Cyber Monday 2025**
If AMD repeats the 7900 series pattern and Nvidia stays pricey:
- **Mild global drop** from launch by fall (like $50–$100).
- **Cyber Monday specific:**
- Higher-end AIBs (ASUS/MSI) could hit your $850-ish zone if MSRP is, say, $899–$999.
- Value AIBs (XFX/PowerColor) might sneak into the **$750–$850** bracket with rebates/bundles.
- Sapphire usually lands on the safer but not insanely cheap side.

I’d personally plan like this:
- **Set a “happy buy” price and a “walk away” price now.** e.g.:
- Happy: $800 for a solid XFX/PowerColor/Sapphire model.
- Walk away: anything over $900 unless it comes with genuinely useful extras (game you’d buy anyway, good PSU combo, etc.).
- **Track the market 2–3 months before Cyber Monday.** If you see a trusted AIB model hit your target during a random sale (Newegg promo, Micro Center combo), don’t over-wait just for the label “Cyber Monday.” That’s often just marketing on top of the same kind of sale.

For 1440p now + 4K later, I’d lean toward a **properly cooled XFX/PowerColor/Sapphire** rather than the absolute cheapest thing you can find on Cyber Monday. Stability and thermals matter more long term than squeezing another $30 off, especially if you’re rendering and editing.

Hope this helps! If you share your region and whether you’ll be near a Micro Center, people can probably give more targeted advice on which retailer to stalk.

Hey,

Everyone’s covered prices and timing pretty well, so I’ll throw in a slightly different angle: safety and reliability over chasing the absolute lowest Cyber Monday number.

From what I’ve seen (and yeah, I’ve had to RMA a few GPUs for clients over the years), the *bigger* risks around launch + sale season are:

1. **PSU / power issues** – New high‑end cards spike pretty hard on transient loads. If you’re going 9070 XT, I’d absolutely plan on a high‑quality PSU (80+ Gold or better, modern protections: OCP, OVP, SCP, OPP, OTP). Don’t cheap out here just to squeeze the GPU into your budget.

2. **Early AIB teething problems** – First batches sometimes have cooler or VRM quirks. Historically, some of the “hot deals” around Black Friday are on early revisions or weaker coolers. For a long‑term build, I’d actually prioritize a well‑reviewed, cooler-running model over a $50–$70 discount.

3. **Return/RMA safety net** – On Cyber Monday, I’d pick the retailer with the best return policy and *reliable* RMA handling over the absolute lowest price. Micro Center (in‑store) and Amazon are usually safer bets than some random marketplace seller.

So if I were you:
- Watch reviews first (thermals, noise, transient load behavior).
- Budget for a solid PSU + case airflow.
- On Cyber Monday, grab a 9070 XT from a reputable AIB with proven cooling, from a retailer with good returns… *even if* it’s only $50–$100 off MSRP.

It’s a decent option performance‑wise, but in my opinion, the real win is a stable, cool, quiet card that won’t cook your case or stress your PSU for the next 4–5 years.

Hope this helps!

If you’re even a little DIY‑inclined, I’d lean hard into the self‑service route instead of waiting for some magical “professional Cyber Monday build deal.” Build the rig yourself, watch price trackers (PartPicker, Keepa, CamelCamelCamel) and pounce when *any* RX 9070 XT SKU dips near your range, even if it’s not exactly on Cyber Monday. That way you can grab a cheaper AIB model (often with mail‑in rebates or bundle codes) and drop the savings into a better PSU or cooler, which actually helps with 4K/creator workloads long‑term. In other words: DIY the build, treat Cyber Monday as just one data point, and let continuous price watching + flexible timing do the heavy lifting instead of banking on retailer “pro services” or fixed holiday promos.

Hey,

I’ll come at this from the long‑term ownership side, because I’ve unfortunately been burned more by *rushed* launches than by missing Cyber Monday discounts.

**TL;DR tip:** I’d plan to buy the RX 9070 XT *after* Cyber Monday, not *for* Cyber Monday – specifically 4–8 weeks after launch, once drivers and AIB quirks shake out. If you catch a deal, great. If not, you get a better behaved card.

Why I say that:

- With my 7900 XT and 6800 XT, the price drops around Black Friday/Cyber Monday were honestly pretty small vs the long‑term headaches: immature drivers, random crashes in some DX12 games, and annoying VRAM clock/idle power bugs. Those got fixed… months later.
- The *real* value in AMD land, in my experience, shows up after a couple of driver cycles + one or two quiet price cuts, not the headline holiday sale.

For your use‑case (1440p now, 4K later, plus video/3D):

**What I’d realistically expect:**
- 2025 Cyber Monday: maybe $50–$100 off MSRP or a game bundle on the 9070 XT, *if* it’s still supply‑constrained it might even just be MSRP with some “free” stuff.
- The better discount window tends to be: minor price correction 2–3 months after launch + random promo (mail‑in rebate, bundle) from AIBs like XFX/PowerColor.

**Practical timing plan IMO:**
1. **Don’t chase day‑1 or first Cyber Monday.** Wait for early owners to report coil whine, hotspot temps, annoying fan curves, etc.
2. Watch for: “silent” price drops at Newegg/Micro Center on *specific* AIBs rather than the whole lineup.
3. Pay a bit more for the cooler you actually want – you’ll live with noise/temps for years, the $30–$50 Cyber Monday savings is gone in a week.

So yeah, I’d budget close to MSRP, then treat any Cyber Monday discount as a bonus, not a plan. Long term, a stable, cool AIB model with mature drivers has been worth way more to me than squeezing out one holiday sale.

Hope this helps!

Hey,

I’ll come at this from a kinda boring-but-important angle: *maintenance* around a new high‑end card like a 9070 XT, and how that ties into **when** you buy.

**Option A – Buy near launch**
Pros:
- Full warranty period covers the earliest “heavy use” years.
- More time before fans, bearings, and thermal pads start wearing out.
Cons:
- You might pay closer to MSRP.
- Early driver quirks.

**Option B – Wait for Cyber Monday 2025**
Pros:
- Possible discount, maybe better cooler models on sale.
- Reviews will show which AIBs run cooler/quieter (less fan wear).
Cons:
- If you get an “open box” or refurb, the card might’ve been mined/abused.
- You lose a chunk of warranty time vs. launch if it released months earlier.

**Option C – Go for a cheaper last‑gen high‑end (like a discounted 8900/7900‑class)**
Pros:
- Bigger discount + more room in budget for **case airflow, PSU, and dust filters**.
- Those extra cooling parts seriously extend GPU life and keep boost clocks stable.
Cons:
- Less future‑proof for 4K.

**Maintenance stuff that kinda changes which option wins:**
- Make sure whatever you buy has **easy‑to-clean** heatsink/fans (some AIBs are way better here than reference).
- Plan for a quick **fan and fin clean every 3–6 months**; high‑end AMD cards run warm, so dust = early throttling.
- Keep a note of **warranty terms** before you pull the cooler apart to re‑paste in a few years (some brands are chill, some aren’t).

In your shoes, I’d *slightly* lean Option B: wait for Cyber Monday, but prioritize an AIB with proven cool/quiet design and a solid warranty over saving an extra $50. Long term, that’s usually worth more than a tiny one‑day discount.

Hope this helps!

Hey,

One angle I haven’t seen mentioned yet: *where* you live and even your climate can seriously change how “good” a Cyber Monday 9070 XT deal actually is.

If you’re in the US/EU with cold winters, high‑end AMD cards are basically space heaters. That’s not a joke – a 350W+ GPU in a small room can push temps up a few °C. In colder regions, that’s almost a bonus in winter, but in hot/humid climates (southern US, Mediterranean, SEA, Australia, etc.) you’ll pay extra on your power bill and AC just to keep the room usable. That can easily wipe out a $50–$80 Cyber Monday “discount” over a couple of summers.

Region also affects sales patterns:
- **US / Germany / UK:** you usually get the *real* GPU price drops first (Newegg, Amazon US, Micro Center, Mindfactory, etc.). Big chains will often do mail‑in rebates or bundled games instead of huge upfront cuts on a brand‑new tier like 9070 XT.
- **Smaller or import‑heavy markets (Nordics, Eastern EU, LATAM, parts of Asia):** prices stay closer to MSRP longer, and Cyber Monday is more marketing than substantial GPU discounts. You’ll see better percentage drops on older gen (e.g., 8900‑series by then) than on the 9070 XT.
- **Places with bad power prices or weak grid (some EU countries, India, South Africa, etc.):** honestly, power efficiency matters more than $50 off on day one. If the 9070 XT ends up on the higher‑wattage side, the “cheapest to buy” card might not be the cheapest to *own*.

So if I were you, I’d do it this way:
1. **Check your local power price and climate.** If you’re in a hot region with expensive kWh, I’d wait not just for Cyber Monday, but also for independent power/thermal tests. Poor efficiency + hot climate = don’t chase early deals.
2. **Watch *local* historical pricing, not US-only charts.** Look at what 7900 XT/XTX did last year *in your country* around BF/CM. If the drop was only like 5–8%, assume the same for 9070 XT and budget near MSRP.
3. **Target region‑specific retailers.**
- US: Micro Center and Newegg have been best for aggressive AMD promos; Best Buy is decent but slower to cut on new high‑end SKUs.
- EU: Mindfactory, Caseking, alternate, and large local e‑tailers usually beat Amazon.de/other Amazons on real reductions.
- Elsewhere: it’s often local online stores + bank card promos (extra % off) that do better than “Cyber Monday” banners.
4. **Prioritize good coolers for your climate over the absolute lowest price.** In hot places, I’d actively pay +$30–$40 for a Sapphire Nitro+ / PowerColor Red Devil‑tier cooler over a hot reference design. Lower junction temps, less fan noise, and less heat dumped into the room. That’s worth far more than a tiny CM rebate.

So, realistic expectation: if you’re in a big US/EU market, a **5–10% discount or a game bundle** on 9070 XT by Cyber Monday 2025 is plausible but not guaranteed; elsewhere, I’d assume almost no real cut and plan close to MSRP. But in any warm or high‑electricity area, I’d focus on:

- Efficient / well‑cooled AIB model
- Reasonable local warranty
- Power/heat vs. your room and AC

Then treat any Cyber Monday price drop as a bonus, not the main plan.

Hope this helps! If you mention your country/region, people can probably give way more targeted advice.

For pure performance I’d look at it like this: Option A = buy 9070 XT near launch, Option B = wait for Cyber Monday 9070 XT, Option C = grab a discounted previous‑gen high‑end (7900 XTX / 4080‑class) instead.

A) Launch‑ish 9070 XT: you’re paying close to MSRP, but you’re getting max performance *right away* for 1440p and probably very playable 4K with upscaling. Best “years of use per dollar,” worst “sticker shock per dollar.”

B) Cyber Monday 9070 XT: historically (6800/6900, 7900 XT/XTX) I’ve seen more like 5–10% off or small MIRs + games, not huge drops in the first Black Friday cycle. So performance per dollar improves a bit, but you’re basically trading a few months of top‑tier gameplay for maybe $50–$80 off. Not nothing, but not life‑changing either.

C) Older high‑end on sale: this is where performance per dollar can go nuts. When the 7900 series matured, I saw 6900 XTs at crazy prices, and they still smashed 1440p and did “good enough” 4K. For you, a heavily discounted last‑gen flagship might give you *more* raw horsepower today for the same $700–$850 than a brand‑new mid‑flagship at a tiny Cyber Monday discount.

If I’m in your shoes and *performance* is king, IMO:
- Need the rig early 2025 and don’t wanna wait? Go Option C: grab a last‑gen beast on sale and enjoy insane 1440p now.
- Can wait until late 2025 and want newer features / better 4K trajectory? Option B: plan for 9070 XT around Cyber Monday, but budget mentally for ~MSRP minus maybe 10%, not some miracle 30% off.

TL;DR: for frames per dollar, last‑gen high‑end on sale usually wins; for “future‑proof + shiny new toy,” 9070 XT is fantastic, but don’t count on Cyber Monday to suddenly push it deep into the $700 range unless AMD comes out swinging on pricing overall.

Hope this helps!

If you care about power use too, I’d actually wait a few months *after* launch and treat Cyber Monday as bonus: new AMD gens usually get more efficient with driver tweaks + small price cuts, so you’re saving both cash and watts long‑term.